When will an intelligence explosion happen?

3 min read

Predicting the future is risky business. There are many philosophical, scientific, technological, and social uncertainties relevant to the arrival of an intelligence explosion. Because of this, experts disagree on when this event might occur. Here are some of their predictions:

Futurist Ray Kurzweil predict s that machines will reach human-level intelligence by 2030 and that we will reach “a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability” by 2045.
Intel’s chief technology officer, Justin Rattner, expects “a point when human and artificial intelligence merges to create something bigger than itself” by 2048.
AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky expects the intelligence explosion by 2060.
Philosopher David Chalmers has over 1/2 credence in the intelligence explosion occurring by 2100.
Quantum computing expert Michael Nielsen estimate s that the probability of the intelligence explosion occurring by 2100 is between 0.2% and about 70%.
In 2009, at the AGI-09 conference, experts were asked when AI might reach superintelligence with massive new funding. The median estimates were that machine superintelligence could be achieved by 2045 (with 50% confidence) or by 2100 (with 90% confidence). Of course, attendees to this conference were self-selected to think that near-term artificial general intelligence is plausible.
iRobot CEO Rodney Brooks and cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter allow that the intelligence explosion may occur in the future, but probably not in the 21st century.
Roboticist Hans Moravec predicts that AI will surpass human intelligence “well before 2050.”
In a 2005 survey of 26 contributors to a series of reports on emerging technologies, the median estimate for machines reaching human-level intelligence was 2085.
Participants in a 2011 intelligence conference at Oxford gave a median estimate of 2050 for when there will be a 50% of human-level machine intelligence, and a median estimate of 2150 for when there will be a 90% chance of human-level machine intelligence.
On the other hand, 41% of the participants in the AI@50 conference (in 2006) stated that machine intelligence would never reach the human level.