How likely is it that AGI will first be developed by a large established organization, rather than a small startup, an academic group or a government?

Even if in principle AGI doesn’t need so much compute, vast amounts can compensate for lack of insight.

• And we likely will

First one is likely to be the worst one.

Funding is key.

It used to be much less clear, but scaling laws strongly imply that if the first AGI requires enormous amounts of compute, smaller actors would not have the funds

Manhattan-Project style thing could be possible for a government, but they’d need to get lots of top scientists, which is hard as those people are likely happy where they are (Rob speculating)

Academics don’t have the compute/funding